Markets in a Minute
with Gary Dugan
Gary Dugan is a seasoned investment professional with a 37-year track record as a Managing Director and Chief Investment Officer at some of the world’s leading banks and wealth managers in Europe, Middle East and Asia.
He is currently the CEO & CIO at The Global CIO Office and partners with SDAX to provide the latest market and financial insights.
17 December 2024
Navigating Central Banks Diverging Policies
Central banks are navigating distinct challenges, reflecting the complexities of today’s global economy. The FED is poised to lower rates by 25 bps, reflecting persistent inflation, fiscal deficits, and higher “normal” rate expectations as it seeks to balance growth and stability. Meanwhile, the ECB’s recent rate cut aims to counter prolonged stagnation but risks triggering deflation in a region already hindered by weak growth in Germany and France and eroding fiscal confidence. These contrasting policies underscore the difficulty of balancing inflation control, fiscal resilience, and economic growth in a highly interconnected global market, with implications that will shape economic and investment trends into 2025.
10 December 2024
Central Banks Remain Helpful
The Fed is expected to proceed with a 25-bp rate cut, contingent on this week’s CPI report. The Nasdaq 100 has surged 32% YTD, fueled by robust tech sector growth and Bitcoin crossing the $100,000 milestone.
3 December 2024
Themes Emerging from the Presidential Transition
With only weeks left before Donald Trump takes office, we thought it would be prudent to analyse the emerging investment themes globally and also see how the president-elect’s proposals of sweeping tariffs will shape the global economic order going forward.
26 November 2024
In Thee We Trust (or Maybe Don't)
As we navigate the transition of power from the Biden administration to President-elect Donald Trump, it’s striking how analysts continue to argue that the US equity market can sustain further gains in the year ahead.
Let’s be honest: few are willing to call a top in the US equity market, which has had a remarkable bull run for much of the past decade. However, it is now perhaps time when we must question – and be concerned – whether the market has outpaced fundamentals. One key valuation metric that encapsulates our concern is the price-to-earnings (P/E) multiple.
19 November 2024
Reflections on a Transition
The US presidential elections have long been recognized as a pivotal event for financial markets, given the profound implications for fiscal, monetary, and regulatory policies both for the US and the world. With a new president all set to take over in weeks, the financial markets appear to be navigating a fine line between short-term optimism over pro-growth policies and apprehensions about their long-term sustainability and potential execution challenges.
12 November 2024
Macro and Markets Review for October 2024
From a macro perspective, the global economy was relatively stable in October, with few significant surprises. Inflation and growth data in developed economies largely aligned with expectations (see Chart 1). Central banks continued their easing trajectories: the ECB implemented its third rate cut of the year, bringing rates down to 3.25%, while the Bank of Canada made a notable 50 basis point cut—its largest rate reduction in four years.
12 November 2024
He's Back
Geopolitics was one of the biggest risks for 2024 that we had cautioned about – and so it has played out. As global economy continues to grapple with those risks, in America the dust has finally settled on who’s going to lead the country the next four years. It’s Donald Trump again!
4 November 2024
There will be Fireworks this Week
As November 5th approaches, two nations will observe this date in markedly different ways. In the UK, it’s Guy Fawkes Night—a celebration marked by fireworks and bonfires commemorating the failed attempt to blow up the Houses of Parliament. Across the Atlantic in the United States, however, this date holds another significance: it’s the Election Day.
29 October 2024
Is Being Popular the Answer?
We had the privilege of hearing from Kevin McCarthy, former Republican Speaker of the US House of Representatives, who spoke at the annual AIM Summit in Dubai last week. His insights offered a unique perspective on the evolving dynamics of the US presidential elections. McCarthy provided an interesting take on former President Donald Trump’s more polarizing “policies,” terming them as strategic bargaining tools rather than rigid doctrine.
22 October 2024
Equities and Gold have the Edge over Bonds
The risk-on sentiment in the market remains evident, firmly supported by recent economic data flow. We note that economists – not wanting to be caught off guard – have been busy upgrading their current-year GDP forecasts for the United States and China over the past few weeks. Even the European economy appears to be finally stabilising. The consensus GDP growth forecast for the US is up to 2.6%, with some more upbeat estimates suggesting an even better 3.0% growth. Economists are also increasingly confident that China will hit its 5% growth target.
15 October 2024
Are We Seeing Reflation?
The dialogue in the markets has made a subtle shift in the last few weeks. Its no longer about the urgent need for large rate cuts and more about the building confidence in a possible acceleration of global growth – a reflation. Recent US employment and inflation reports have cast doubt on market expectations that the Federal Reserve will implement steady rate cuts of 25bps per meeting over the next 12 months.
3 October 2024
Q3 Macro and Markets Review
It happened – US fed funds rates finally peaked. The Fed’s sprung a small surprise and cut interest rates by 50bps against a marginal majority view that the fed would only cut rates by 25bps. The accompanying statement and dot plot showed that the market was right to anticipate further consistent cuts from future Fed meetings. The peaking of US rates has acted as a catalyst for better performance from equities and bonds as the quarter closed.
1 October 2024
A World of Sharp Contrasts
While the US equity market continues to push higher, the economic backdrop remains mixed. Data released last week showed that the Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index dropped to 98.7 in September, with the “present situation” sub-index declining sharply, indicating a potential economic downturn. Historical evidence suggests that a 20% decline in the current situation sub-index often precedes a recession. The ratio of consumers finding it difficult to get a job has worsened, predicting a rise in unemployment to 5.3% and signalling labour market pressure.
24 September 2024
Now What?
To our relief, the Federal Reserve slashed interest rates by half percentage point last week. Given the historical context, the markets must now be a bit apprehensive about what lies next.
17 September 2024
The Fed's Close Call
This is a crucial week as far as interest rates are concerned. Policymakers at three global central banks – the Federal Reserve, the Bank of England, and the Bank of Japan – meet this week to decide whether or not to cut interest rates. Central banks therefore will be very much in the headlines this week.
10 September 2024
We Need Central Banks to Step on the Gas
Last week’s sell-off of equities was a shade perverse. Ordinarily, you would think that better-than-expected economic data would encourage global equity indices to rise. However, the market would have preferred weaker data to guide the Fed to cut soon and aggressively. In the event, a stronger-than-expected US employment report and a reasonable level of ongoing confidence in the service sector had economists’ views converging on a likely 25bps rate cut at the next meeting rather than 50bps.
3 September 2024
Building the Case for 50bps?
A clearer picture on whether the U.S. Fed will cut policy rates by 25bps or 50bps at its next meeting will likely emerge by the end of this week when key economic reports, including the ISM manufacturing and services sector surveys and employment data are released. These key data points provide an important backdrop to the U.S. Fed meeting scheduled on 15 September.
27 August 2024
Fed Rate Cut – There’s No Turning Back
Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell delivered an emphatic message at the Jackson Hole symposium last week, noting unequivocally that “It is time for policy to adjust.” He also noted his concern about the weakness in the labour market. Powell’s comments mark a significant turning point for the policymakers—and the markets. Aside from Japan, central banks are almost all set on a path of bringing interest rates down after years of fighting inflation.
20 August 2024
Back to Normal?
Equity markets have shown remarkable resilience over the past ten trading days, recovering most of their recent losses. While equities are still trading below their yearly highs, they have rebounded by more than 7% from their 5 August lows. The drop in bond yields has helped the equity markets. In the U.S. bond market, yields have remained near recent lows, despite better economic data, such as better-than-expected inflation numbers, which have further bolstered sentiments. As of Friday’s close, the U.S. 10-year yield had dropped 28 basis points from where it stood at the previous equity market peak on July 16th.
13 August 2024
Half-Way Back
Global equites ended a 10-day rout, recovering almost half-way back to where they stood prior to the US employment report. Although Japan too has recovered around half of the losses, it is more substantially behind in percentage terms and probably offers a buying opportunity. Market sentiment has largely recovered although there will a legacy shock to the system which may make investors more discerning investors in crowded trades. We note the substantial outflows from non-investment grade bond funds and the tentative recovery in tech stocks.
1 August 2024
Macro and Markets Review for July 2024
As we turned into the year’s second half, the markets finally saw more consistent news of better-behaved inflation. With inflation falling closer to central bank targets, some started to signal that they were at or much closer to the point of cutting interest rates. By the end of July and adding in the first day of August, the Bank of Japan, ECB, and UK MPC had cut rates, and the Fed signalled that it would likely cut rates at their September meeting.
30 July 2024
A Tale of Three Central Banks
This week, policymakers at three major central banks – the US Federal Reserve (Fed), the Bank of Japan (BoJ), and the Bank of England – will convene to decide on the future course of interest rates. Each of these meetings could have distinct impacts on their respective markets, and could signal a potential turning point in the banks’ monetary policies.
23 July 2024
Volatility Spikes on The Twists and Turns of Geopolitics
These are uncertain times, and geopolitics is still very much at the fore with the not-so-unexpected decision from US President Joe Biden to withdraw from the presidential race. The messy soap opera that the US political scene is currently witnessing reminds us to keep wondering—and challenging—why global investors have so much money parked in US assets.
16 July 2024
The Folly of the Fed's Last Dot Plot
The Fed pivoting from its earlier stance of three rate cuts to just one over the balance of the year has proven misguided. Contrary to the central bank’s indications at its last FOMC meeting, the market is now preparing for earlier rate cuts, with at least two anticipated by year-end.
10 July 2024
UK Election Special - Shifting to the Left
Labour’s triumphant victory comes after one of the most dismal and uninspiring campaigns in a generation. Both main parties avoided addressing key challenges such as the state of public finances and effective immigration policy, with the approach itself described as a ‘conspiracy of silence’. The pre-election manifestos were structured on a safety-first basis to avoid any political fallout from too radical proposals.
9 July 2024
A July Rate Cut?
The weakness in US economic data of late has increased the possibility of an earlier-than-expected Fed rate cut, or, at the very least, a shift in the Federal Reserve’s signalling about the pace of the cuts. We recently expressed our belief that the Fed governors erred in resetting their dot plot to anticipate just one rate cut before the end of the year—a downgrade from the three rate cuts they had indicated three months earlier.
5 July 2024
Q2 Macro and Markets Quarterly
The second quarter of 2024 was marked by a complex interplay of strong financial market performance, persistent inflation, and geopolitical risks. While consumer spending and labor markets remained robust in key economies like the U.S., inflation and geopolitical uncertainties posed ongoing challenges. The global economic outlook remained cautiously optimistic, with central banks’ monetary policies and geopolitical developments being critical factors to watch.
3 July 2024
Political Turmoil
The Equity Market starts to Ignore the Fed, but not the Bond Market. The financial markets ended the quarter on a soft note. As we have noted in these columns recently, concerns have been mounting that the Fed’s view on future monetary policy is not in sync with the current economic data. The Fed’s last ‘dot plot’ from just a few weeks ago abandoned its own previous view of three rate cuts and instead signalled that there will be just one this year.
25 June 2024
China's Opportunity - Not To Be Missed
There is a sense of investor anticipation/apprehension ahead of the third plenum of the 20th Communist Party of China Central Committee to be held in Beijing in July. It is important to not underestimate the importance of the occasion. A third plenary session of the central committee customarily unveils China’s major medium- and long-term economic policies. Irrespective of whether one is positive or negative about the market, the event itself could mark a significant risk.
18 June 2024
Opportunity Out of Adversity?
The Fed doesn’t believe in significant early rate cuts – but the market could still be pricing that scenario.
It has now become a game of conjecture about the US central bank’s next move on rates. The Fed recently shifting gears on its outlook on the number of rate cuts from three to just one over a span of three months has turned predicting its actions into a guessing game rather than an exercise in profound insight.
4 June 2024
Macro and Markets Review
for May 2024
There was quite a dispersion of economic data surprises around the world through May. Europe was the positive standout, with evidence of ongoing improvement in economic growth. Japan’s economic data deteriorated sharply at least until right at the end of the month when retail sales beat expectations. However, generally through the month Japan saw disappointing growth data. The US economy lost some momentum too. The economy is still growing at a relatively good clip, but it appears that consumers are feeling the pinch from high inflation taking away spending power.
28 May 2024
Peaking Markets Range Trade
US bank leaders’ statements of caution
We generally don’t echo the opinions of others’ in the market. However, in the past week, we’ve been struck by comments made by the CEOs of JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs about the current state of inflation and future rate cuts. The market’s performance continues to swing between the view that the Fed will cut rates as soon as there’s any clear sign of slowing growth or inflation unexpectedly trending downwards. On our part, we have consistently stated that inflation will remain stubbornly low and that the Fed will be slow to cut interest rates.
21 May 2024
Gold –the Asset Class for the Moment
Gold stands out as a crucial asset class for safeguarding wealth in the face of inflation and geopolitical uncertainty, offering unique benefits that other assets struggle to match. Inflation poses a significant challenge to traditional investments like bonds and equities, often leading to a stronger correlation between their negative returns during inflationary periods.
21 May 2024
No Easy Bets Except Maybe in Tech
We still see prospects of stagflation despite a slightly better-than-expected US inflation data point. Amidst cooling domestic demand, the US consumer price inflation came in a touch lower than expected. The ‘stag’ of stagflation was more in evidence. April retail sales growth too fell short of expectations, and downward revisions to previous months’ data added weight to the concerns surrounding consumers’ spending power.
14 May 2024
A World of Contrasts
Last week, we discussed the re-emergence of a ‘Goldilocks’ market scenario, which seems less about the United States and more about early potential rate cuts elsewhere in the world, ongoing reforms in Japan, and the prospect of monetary loosening, particularly in China. If anything, the current economic dialogue in the US is more focused on emerging stagflation risks.
7 May 2024
Goldilocks makes a re-appearance
Last Friday’s weaker-than-expected US employment report temporarily relieved the Fed from the market’s criticism of its sanguine view on the inflation threat. Despite several data points of late signalling higher-than-expected headline inflation, wage inflation, and increased industrial confidence, the market placed significant importance on the disappointing employment report. We wonder why such emphasis on this report in particular? In our opinion, it’s wishful thinking.
30 April 2024
Nothing is Straightforward
Last week’s US economic data showed that you can’t have entrenched views or exaggerated portfolio positions amidst an economic backdrop that remains highly fluid. It was just a couple of weeks ago that US economy appeared to be on a strong footing with a continuous flow of better-than-expected economic data. Back then, the Citigroup Economic Surprise Index (or CESI) for US growth surprises was at a level of 40. Two weeks later, after a much weaker-than-expected first quarter GDP figure, the CESI index is down to a level of just 15.
24 April 2024
Challenges of Higher for Longer
A few trends are developing, we see a new trading range for the US 10 year of 4.25%-4.75%. The investor hopes for US government bond yields tracking down to the 3.0%-4.0% range look unlikely to be realised soon. We are now in a territory where we literally have a break from 15 years of successive low interest rates. The market prices a rate cut some time between September and November. Hence, by the end of the year we could still be seeing interest rates of more than 5.0%.
16 April 2024
Living with US Inflation
There can be no doubt that US inflation is not on track. Last week’s inflation report showed consumer prices increased more than expected for the third month in a row. In fact, inflation is not just sticky, it’s rising. The three-month annualised super core inflation is running at 8.2%. When headline inflation hit 9.1% in June 2022, little did we know back then that nearly two years later we would still be talking about a major US inflation measure being that close to double-digit growth.
09 April 2024
A New Realism taking Hold
02 April 2024
Is This Asia’s Quarter?
26 March 2024
A Split View
The surprise from the Fed meeting statement, at least on the surface, was that they were sticking to their view that inflation was under control and that they intended to cut interest rates two or three times through the year. However, it became apparent with the publication of the dot plot that those views lacked a broader consensus, with the FOMC’s projections split between dovish and hawkish outlooks. The nine ‘hawks’ believe there may be scope for only modest interest rate cuts in 2024.
20 March 2024
The Fed under Pressure
The turmoil in the US Treasury market last week has set a tense stage for the upcoming Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting. The unexpected surge in producer price inflation has rattled the market, fueling concerns that the Federal Reserve may not lower interest rates in the near term. The 10-year Treasury yield climbed 23 basis points over the week, continuing a pattern of sharp increases. This rise underscores a significant uptrend in long-term interest rates, which have surged from a December low of 3.79% after a strong fourth-quarter performance.
12 March 2024
US Equities: Pushing the Envelope too far?
It Equity markets drifted lower on Friday, but not before scaling new highs earlier in the week. The S&P500 hit an all-time high on Thursday before the markets put in a mixed performance on Friday after a slightly confusing US jobs report.
5 March 2024
Sticky Inflation Challenges the Bond Markets
A lot has been said and done but US inflation remains sticky and is simply not slipping back into the Fed’s comfort zone.
27 February 2024
It can't just be about Tech
It was a week of contrasts. NVIDIA’s market-beating results brought some good news from the world of AI, but they were contrasted with warnings from the Fed that the central bank is on a likely go-slow with respect to interest rate cuts. Meanwhile global equity investors search for further support for the rally from the rest of the world.
20 February 2024
A US rate rise? Possibly, but not Probably
The recent inflation news flow has put the market on the backfoot. As we have discussed in our newsletters over the past three weeks, an ongoing period of disinflation has ended, although the market prefers not to admit it. The story of more inflation than the markets bargained for goes back a few weeks to the USM ISM service sector prices paid index, which showed the most significant monthly increase since 2012. Such a surge is remarkable. However, to convince the market that the phase of disinflation is truly in abeyance, we have considered a few more inflation data points. The economic data reports over the past few weeks have shown inflation hardening at around 3-4% and remaining uncomfortably above central bank targets.
14 February 2024
Markets Enjoy the Growth and Hope for Lower Rates
Equity markets continued to have a positive tone in the past week. Markets, though, are not getting carried away. The market moved higher in the fourth quarter despite worsening economic data as hopes built that the Fed must cut interest rates sooner. Based on recent financial data, Nowcast’s estimate indicates that a first-quarter US economic growth of as high as 3.5% provides further support for the market. A move or no move by the Fed notwithstanding, the market appears reasonably content with the current growth rate.
7 February 2024
Trying to Remain Sober at a Party
The US equity markets have maintained their upward momentum since the lows of October with gains spreading across various sectors, not just the tech industry, which often dominates headlines. While the NASDAQ Composite has indeed led the way in performance, the broader S&P 500 has also shown strong gains. Even the Dow Jones Industrial Average lags only four percentage points behind the NASDAQ over the same period.
30 January 2024
How Should We Invest in Equities
U.S. economic indicators continue to trend positively. As we had noted in our previous issue, the decline in inflation, driven by falling oil prices, has put more money in the hands of consumers, sparking a notable increase in spending. The U.S. Economic Surprise Index has seen a rebound in recent weeks, dispelling earlier concerns about a recession.
23 January 2024
Steady But Not Stable
A world of no surprises cannot last forever and we had said so last week. Indeed, this past week, several economic data points in the US marched into the positive territory, suggesting better momentum than many economists had expected. The Citigroup economic surprise index bounced off zero to its best level in around a month. It is encouraging that the index is no longer at neutral!
16 January 2024
Probably not Neutral
9 January 2024
Nothing has Changed but Everything has Changed
The transition from 2023 to 2024 has been characterised by a stark contrast: While investors appeared in high spirits and fully confident at the close of 2023, 2024 so far has seen them take a more cautious and subdued outlook of the future.
2 January 2024
2023 Asset Market Review
It’s shocking but true that the global equity market return (in USD) has hardly provided a positive total return in the past two years, and the NASDAQ index even gave a negative return.
2 January 2024
Ten Pointers to 2024
As we step into a new year, its crucial to understand the evolving landscape of financial markets. We look back to draw lessons and try to gauge what can be set right. We dwell on the happenings of the year gone by and try to understand what can go right – and wrong – for the markets. Below, we present ten pointers on how the markets fared and where we think we are headed.
19 December 2023
Doves in the Ascendency
The doves at the Federal Reserve were in the driver’s seat last week as the central bank’s statement and dots boosted hopes for significant policy rate cuts in 2024. The Fed is signalling three rate cuts next year; the market is pricing around six. Although the Fed has not entirely ruled out the possibility of raising rates again, the market is clearly of the view that rates have peaked and that there may be a good reason to cut rates earlier than the central bank indicates.
12 December 2023
A World of Contrasts
After a few weeks of disappointment, US economic data changed trajectory for the better, challenging the market view that US growth was rolling over and the Fed should resort to interest rate cuts sooner. Both the US employment numbers and the US consumer confidence survey came in better than expected. The November US employment report showed non-farm employment growth of 190,000, which was more substantial than expected. Hours worked per week and wage growth were stronger, too.
6 December 2023
Macro and Markets Monthly - November 2023
November was indeed quite significant if not entirely extraordinary. It showed that even minor shifts in economic outlook can significantly affect asset markets, potentially reaching a pivotal point. As evident in Chart 1 below, these shifts, though subtle, make us sit up and take notice. While the macro environment has long been besieged by inflation, November brought a much-desired relief in the form of a notable decline in inflation momentum.
28 November 2023
No Cold Turkey
The financial markets have maintained their recent upward run, which has been fueled by a stream of seemingly positive developments that have boosted equities and high-yield bonds. However, we caution against the current wave of optimism, which could face a sharp reversal if the widely anticipated gentle economic deceleration fails to materialise.
21 November 2023
How Can 0.1% Feel So Good?
Last week witnessed a notable boost to investor sentiments as the 0.1% outperformance of U.S. inflation data versus expectations prompted a discernible uptick in risk appetites. The impact resonated through the global bond markets, with a significant decline in yields—U.S. 10-year notes receded by 20 basis points (bps), paralleled by a steeper 30 bps reduction in New Zealand.
14 November 2023
A Festival of Confusion not Light
As we celebrate the Festival of Light, investors are in search of greater clarity amid the haze of conflicting economic data and central bank statements. Best of luck to you navigating these uncertain times.
7 November 2023
Nothing is For Certain
It does not feel like an environment for elevated risk taking. While the markets enjoyed the outcome of the FOMC meeting and the subsequent soft US employment report, as investors (and the central bankers) we are still living from data point to data point in the US at present.
2 November 2023
Monthly Review of Macro and Market Performance
Through October, data reports for the global economy showed stronger-than-expected growth in the United States and some stabilisation in China. Third quarter US GDP growth came in well ahead of expectations at 4.9%. Still, strong consumer spending growth was a positive feature (Chart 1).
31 October 2023
Strong US Growth too Hot to Handle?
Astute investors following the US economy would find the current trend of robust growth and persistent inflation concerning. That economic dynamic has had the Federal Reserve appear worried, too, and as we approach this week’s FOMC meeting, it’s widely anticipated that the Fed will keep the interest rates unchanged.
24 October 2023
Mounting Headwinds to Markets
In our latest presentation to a discerning group of private clients and investment professionals, we conducted a poll regarding the outlook for inflation in the United States over the next two years. The query posed was straightforward: Where will US inflation stand in two years? The results were telling, with only a mere 20% of the respondents envisioning a scenario where inflation hovers within the Federal Reserve’s target range of 1% to 3%.
17 October 2023
It doesn't get any better, it gets tougher
The Middle East is at the centre of global geopolitics once again – and this time for some very unfortunate reasons. Whether the developments will have a bearing on the financial markets is something that only time will tell, but the profound human suffering that has affected so many lives will certainly affect our collective psyche.
10 October 2023
Don't get Anchored on the Wrong Past
In times such as these, investors need help in gauging the true value of the markets. For them, one of the toughest calls to take is estimating the fair value of the US 10-year government bond yield. In the past five years, the US 10-year government bond yield has ranged between as low as 0.51% and (very recently) as high as 4.8%.
3 October 2023
A Quarterly Turning Point
The third quarter saw almost all asset classes end in the red. While global growth has remained robust, neither equities nor bonds could make any headway during the quarter as markets remained worried about central bank policies and the persistence of inflation.
26 September 2023
A Wake Up Call from the Fed
The US and, to a large extent, the world economy are finally coming to terms with the somewhat perplexing reality of resilient growth and persistent inflation. While markets have long wished for interest rates to decline, the Fed has found little room to maneuver in the face of rebounding growth and an improving unemployment situation.
19 September 2023
Policy Makers Still Hard at Work
The Federal Reserve is unlikely to announce a further rate increase at its Wednesday meeting. However, the release of a fresh round of economic projections from the central bank will shape the mood of the market. We expect the Fed to signal that a further rate hike in the near future cannot be ruled out.
14 September 2023
Macro and Markets Monthly August 2023
The global economy has become one of marked contrasts between the robustness of US growth and the struggles of Europe, particularly China. Robust economic data out of the US in the early phase of the month led to economists upgrading their GDP forecasts.
12 September 2023
Still robust growth and more inflation
Do not underestimate one of the key agreements at the G20 meetings in Delhi India, the announcement of a landmark India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor. The initiative has huge potential implications.
5 September 2023
Positively Negative
August saw a repeat of the 2022 syndrome. Like in 2022, both equities and bond markets delivered negative returns in August. The basic tenet of a diversified multi-asset portfolio is that equities and bonds are negatively correlated.
29 August 2023
Central Bankers Attempt to Climb Out of a Hole
Few surprises emerged from the foothills of the Teton Range in Jackson Hole last week. For some time now, it has been evident that policy makers are still concerned about the persisting inflation and the signs of a re-acceleration in growth in the United States.
22 August 2023
Maybe we should talk about 5%
The “shock” of a reacceleration in global growth even as core inflation persists and remains sticky is pushing investors – and economists – to consider levels of long-term interest rates that were previously unthinkable.
15 August 2023
Testing Times
Some economists drew comfort from last week’s US inflation report, but we believe it still does not paint a rosy picture. Core inflation, which peaked at 6.6% year-on-year last September, is still at 4.7%, indicating it remains sticky and high…
8 August 2023
US not ready to Samba
The US asset markets managed to pull themselves out of a bit of a tailspin last week. Investors sold off both equities and bonds and the recent dollar rally lost some momentum…
3 August 2023
Macro and Markets Monthly July 2023
In the early part of the month, the financial markets had fretted that global growth bordered on a mild recession. However, several data points from the US brought comfort…
1 August 2023
Growth Challenges the Market
There was a lot of news and central bank action to digest last week. Growth remains robust, inflation a little less threatening – good news for the markets but buy wisely…
25 July 2023
Look out for What they say, not What they do
There are widespread expectations that the Fed will impose a 25 basis point rate hike this week, but the markets will be more keen on what the Fed has to say rather than what it actually does…
18 July 2023
Taking the Edge off the Risks
Last week’s good US inflation report, which showed prices increased at their slowest pace in two years, somewhat blunts the risks of very high interest rates and has reinforced the…
11 July 2023
It's Getting Hot Out There
Last week was unprecedented at least on one count: the World witnessed the highest average temperature on record, not once, but thrice during the week…
4 July 2023
Central Bankers Still Hard at Work
It was amply clear from the speeches at the ECB’s annual policy conference in Sintra, Portugal that the battle against inflation is far from over. Speakers after speakers were unanimous in their views that a lot was required to be done…
28 June 2023
Geopolitics to the Fore Again
The events unfolding in Russia over the past few days have highlighted the fragility of global geopolitics…
20 June 2023
Taking a Breather
As we had suspected, the Fed took a breather last week choosing to temporarily pause its rate hike cycle…
13 Jun 2023
The Skipping Fed
The FOMC board members appear convinced about not increasing interest rates at this week’s meeting…
6 Jun 2023
Goldilocks faces off to the Fed Wolf
Investors’ interpretation of current economic data has been rather perverse. Equity markets have …
30 May 2023
Inflation Fight
The market’s wishful thinking is not coming to fruition. Inflation continues to be a problem …
22 May 2023
Japan Inc is back…
As expected, the US headline inflation rate fell to 4.9% in April. With an increase in the Fed funds rate and …
16 May 2023
Really?
As expected, the US headline inflation rate fell to 4.9% in April. With an increase in the Fed funds rate and …
9 May 2023
Stuck in the Grey Zone
Recent economic data have neither painted a picture of exuberance nor of utter despondency. Investors …
26 Apr 2023
Modest Market Returns in the Past Week as Inflation Pressure Persists
Last week was relatively quiet in both the bond and equity markets, with only modest returns. However …
18 Apr 2023
The Peaking of the United States of America
In meetings with many global investors last week, I was struck by the tangible change in attitude regarding …
11 Apr 2023
History is Not on the Side of a Fed Rate Cut
Looking back at the history of the circumstances that led to a cut in rates by the Fed, it is evident …
3 Apr 2023
Q1 2023 Market Review- Better Than It Seemed
Growth forecasts have continued to inch up, and the overall inflation scenario still needs to improve.
